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UFC Vegas 19 Betting Prediction: Jared Vanderaa vs. Sergey Spivak

by Ayden Fahlstrom | February 18, 2021 |

Opening for the next UFC event is a matchup that is definitely going to set the tone early. In this fight, you will have the betting opportunity to catch Sergey Spivak take on Jared Vanderaa. 

Date: Sat, Feb 20, 3:30 PM

Venue: UFC Apex

Watch on: ESPN+

The Fighters 

Sergey Spivak (11-2-0)

Spivak is coming off of a decision win to Carlos Felipe back in July of 2020. This win got him back on the right track after a tough unanimous decision loss to Marcin Tybura in the fight before. 

His fighting resume shows that he has four wins by knockout, six by submission, and one by decision. He also has put together eight first round finishes with a combination of knockouts and submissions. 

“The Polar Bear” has a striking accuracy at 44 percent and a grappling accuracy at 56 percent. He lands 3.15 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.20. This is a solid ratio but he will need to watch how much he absorbs. 

Spivak has a takedown defense at 75 percent and a significant strike defense at 59 percent. He also averages 3.46 takedowns and 0.40 submissions every 15 minutes. 

Jared Vanderaa (11-4-0)

Vanderaa is coming off of a two fight winning streak and looking to add more. His most recent battle was a first round knockout victory against Harry Hunsucker back in November of 2020. 

His fighting resume shows that he has seven wins by knockout, three by submission, and one by submission. He also has six first round finishes with a combination of knockouts and submissions. 

“The Mountain” only has one UFC fight on his resume. This battle was the recent first round knockout victory at Dana White’s Contender Series. 

He had a striking accuracy at 51 percent and a significant strike defense at 45 percent. He was also able to rack up 23 significant strikes and one takedown in just three minutes of action. 

Odds For This Event 

The market has this one tilting towards Spivak. For the moneyline, Intertops has the odds currently placed at:

Spivak: -250

Vanderaa: +190

*odds are subject to changes 

Free Betting Pick 

The betting market is looking like they are taking UFC experience over the newcomer trying to make his debut. With that being said, can these odds be justified?

Vanderaa has done well recently in the EFC and LFA leagues before signing on with the UFC. He also looked great in his debut with the Contender Series. 

Spivak has gone 2-2 since joining the UFC and will win one, then lose one. Each fight tells a unique story, whether or not he was matched better or worse. 

Overall, this fight appears closer than the odds have dictated. They both have great arguments to be made about who will win. 

For this matchup, taking the more experienced UFC fighter makes sense to some degree. Take Spivak by decision, especially if he controls the ground game with aggressive takedowns. 

Spooky Express Free Pick: Spivak wins via decision, at -250

Spooky Express is your UFC Vegas 19 headquarters for Fight Breakdowns, Betting Analysis, Fight FREE PLAYS, DFS Lineup Tips, Sportsbook Bonuses and much more! CLICK HERE to read each individual handicapping breakdowns from this UFC event!

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