UFC Fight Island Betting Prediction: Jonathan Martinez vs. Thomas Almeida

by Tyler Vaysman | October 16, 2020 |

Starting off the main card strong is a fight you do not want to miss in the next UFC event. This featherweight battle will be between Thomas Almeida and Jonathan Martinez.

  • Date: October 17, 6:00 PM
  • Venue: Flash Forum
  • Watch on: ESPN+

Thomas Almeida (22-3-0)

Almeida is on a two fight losing streak coming into this one. His fighting resume shows that he has 17 wins by knockout, 3 by submission, and 1 by decision.

“Thominhas” has a striking accuracy at 45 percent and nothing for a grappling accuracy. He lands 5.66 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 4.65. This ratio is solid, but could use some more defense here.

Almeida has a takedown defense at 75 percent and a significant strike defense at 64 percent. For 15 minutes of fight time, he does not have any clear takedown or submission averages.

Jonathan Martinez (12-3-0)

Martinez is coming off of a knockout victory back in August. His fighting resume shows that he has 7 wins by knockout, 2 by submission, and 3 by decision.

“Dragon” has a striking accuracy at 50 percent and a grappling accuracy at 37 percent. He lands 4.22 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.46. This is another solid ratio here, with room to grow.

Martinez has a takedown defense at 46 percent and a significant strike defense at 57 percent. He also averages 0.64 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds For This Event

The market has had a fairly consistent opinion towards this match. BetOnline has the odds currently sitting at:

Almeida: -134

Martinez: +114

*odds are subject to changes

Potential Winning Pick

Both of these fighters present a great case to win this fight. However, can these odds be justified here?

Martinez appears to have some ground game in addition to his great striking ability. He also has been able to defend fairly well, having a solid ratio for his significant strikes. He would need to defend against takedowns better but I have a feeling Almeida will mostly use his striking ability to attack.

Almost has a solid significant strike ratio too, but does not defend well in the amount he takes on each minute. However, he has a lot better defenses that could benefit him in later rounds in addition to his great striking ability.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Almeida wins via TKO

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