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UFC Vegas 19 Betting Prediction: Julian Erosa vs. Nate Landwehr

by Ayden Fahlstrom | February 18, 2021 |

Looking for another betting opportunity? The upcoming UFC event has plenty to select from, especially in the prelims. One such example is the featherweight matchup between Nate Landwehr and Julian Erosa. 

Date: Sat, Feb 20, 3:30 PM

Venue: UFC Apex

Watch on: ESPN+

The Fighters 

Nate Landwehr (14-3-0)

Landwehr is coming off of a unanimous decision victory against Darren Elkins back in May of 2020. This fight put him back on a winning streak after dropping a first round knockout against Herbert Burns the fight before. 

His fighting resume shows that he has eight wins by knockout and six by decision. He also has two first round knockout finishes to compliment his resume. 

“The Train” has two UFC fights on his resume so far, so his numbers could be a little inflated in some areas. He has a striking accuracy at 50 percent and nothing yet for a grappling accuracy. 

He lands 6.89 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 7.22. This ratio is a bit inflated since he only has two fights, so nothing too concerning just yet. 

Landwehr has a takedown defense at 85 percent and a significant strike defense at 52 percent. He does not yet have any averages for takedowns or submissions. 

Julian Erosa (24-9-0)

Erosa is currently on a two fight submission win streak heading into this fight. He is moving in the right direction after previously losing three straight. 

His fighting resume shows that he has 10 wins by knockout, 11 by submission, and three by decision. He also has five first round finishes with a combined effort of knockouts and submissions. 

“Juicy J” has a striking accuracy at 46 percent and a grappling accuracy at 54 percent. He lands 4.92 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.67. This ratio is slightly on the negative side, so this is something to watch for. 

Erosa has a takedown defense at 58 percent and significant strike defense at 50 percent. He also averages 1.34 takedowns and 0.90 submissions every 15 minutes. 

Odds For This Event 

The market has this one coming in as a true coin flip. For the moneyline, BetDSI has the odds currently sitting at:

Erosa: -110

Landwehr: -110

*odds are subject to changes 

Free Betting Pick 

Both of these fighters present a strong case as to why they should win. Looking at this, it is not surprising to see the market unsure of themselves either.

Landwehr has limited UFC exposure as compared to Erosa. Both of these fighters’ last fights they cracked over 100 significant strikes in their victories for the first time in both of their UFC careers. 

This could turn into a great striking matchup, especially if they both have a lot of significant strikes each minute averages. The key here is to see who is more accurate. 

Overall, taking either one is a great choice. But Landwehr appears to be a slightly better choice. 

Spooky Express Free Pick: Landwehr wins via decision, at -110

Spooky Express is your UFC Vegas 19 headquarters for Fight Breakdowns, Betting Analysis, Fight FREE PLAYS, DFS Lineup Tips, Sportsbook Bonuses and much more! CLICK HERE to read each individual handicapping breakdowns from this UFC event!

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