LFA 49 Handicapping Tips and Betting Picks

by Sep 14, 2018UFC Betting

LFA 49 - Atlantic City, NJ

Where/Venue: Golden Nugget Resort & Casino
Where/Location: Atlantic City, NJ
When: Friday, September 14, 2018, at 9:00 PM ET


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LFA 49 will take place on Friday night, September 14, 2018, from the Golden Nugget Hotel & Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and the card is totally stacked with some local talent that we are very familiar with here at the Spooky Express.

The Main Event will feature two hot prospects in the Welterweight Division as undefeated Sean Brady takes on undefeated Gilbert Urbina. The Co-Main Event will feature two Welterweights colliding inside the cage as former UFC veteran Jonavin Webb takes on former WWE Tough Enough contestant Tanner Saraceno.

LFA 49 Fight Card

Sean Brady 8-0 vs. Gilbert Urbina 5-0
Jonavin Webb 10-2 vs. Tanner Saraceno 7-2
Andy Main 11-3-1 vs. Saul Almeida 19-9
Stephen Regman 8-3 vs. Will Santiago 9-5
Adi Alic 7-3 vs. John De Jesus 9-6
Andrew Salas 5-1 vs. Ahmet Kayretli 8-2
Patrick Rivera 2-1 vs. Dakota Bush 4-1
Kenny Richmond 2-0-1 vs. Ben Allen 1-2


Let me start off by saying that this event truly feels like a home event for me. When I look down the list of fighters on this card, I see at least one fighter that I am very familiar with in each fight. Many of the fighters on this card I know personally and have dealt with a significant amount of fights during my times on the regional circuit.

Sean Brady vs. Gilbert Urbina

The Main Event will feature two undefeated fighters with two totally different styles as Sean Brady takes on Gilbert Urbina. This fight really interests me from a betting standpoint because this is one of those fights that you just smile and say “THANK YOU”.

Sean Brady is 8-0 overall and is a very talented striker. When this kid hits you, he packs a ton of power and you go down. I saw him hit a guy with a spinning back fist and seriously nearly knock him out with the one punch. Brady is coming off a win over former UFC veteran and TUF Season 16 winner, Colton Smith. Brady is on a short list to get to the UFC and a win here may push him over the hump and into the elite promotion in the world.

Gilbert Urbina is 5-0 and is coming into this fight off an 18-month absence from the cage. Urbina hasn’t fought since March 2017, a fight that he won by rear naked choke in the first round over Noel Ligon. Urbina has fought a much lower level of competition and is taking an enormous jump in class to fight Sean Brady.

There are levels to fighting and these two guys are on completely different levels. In his last fight, Urbina showed several spots where he looked green and dropped his right-hand several times throughout the fight. Urbina throws a lot of kicks and Brady will end up catching one of those kicks and putting Urbina on his back.

There aren’t many times I ever say this but Sean Brady is going to absolutely destroy this kid. It’s actually shocking to see the odds open up at Sean Brady only -210. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever that Brady isn’t at least -500 heading into this fight. Serious, the difference in the caliber of talent and the quality of fighter is that obvious to me in this fight. Make this your last play of the night, and roll with 5 units on Sean Brady -210!

Spooky Express Free Play: Sean Brady -210 for 5 units at Bookmaker


Jonavin Webb vs. Tanner Saraceno

The next fight we are looking at is the Co-Main Event between former UFC veteran and BJJ Black Belt, Jonavin Webb, taking on former WWE Tough Enough competitor, Tanner Saraceno. Webb enters this fight with a 10-2 record with 1 no contest, while Saraceno is 7-2.

Webb’s only 2 losses came while he was in the UFC, against Nathan Coy and Kyle Noke. The Noke fight, I have watched no less than 10 times and no one will ever convince me that Webb lost that fight. I scored it 2 rounds to 1 round for Webb, as many people that I know also scored it the same way. Webb is a very talented grappler that is extremely dangerous on the ground.

He is a BJJ Black Belt who trains with a lot of guys that I have a tremendous amount of respect for. Webb has not only fought in the UFC but out of his 13 pro fights, he has faced the likes of Aung La Nsang, who is a multi-division world champion, Lyman Good, who is currently in the UFC and Dan Stittgen, who is a former UFC veteran.

Saraceno is 7-2 overall and is fresh off a win over UFC veteran Dominic Waters. Saraceno appeared on the WWE’s version of TUF called Tough Enough, where wrestlers combine their acting skills and athleticism together to try and earn a WWE contract. Saraceno will be traveling to hostile territory as Jonavin Webb travels with a very large fan base. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit for Webb to have 300+ fans in attendance on Friday Night, cheering on the home town guy.

Webb will have many advantages in this fight. He is the better grappler, has much better BJJ and one thing that most aren’t thinking of is the fact that Webb’s teammate and training partner for this fight, Sean Brady, already beat Saraceno 16 months ago. Brady submitted Saraceno in the 1st round of their fight so he knows what it takes to get the win. I’m sure Webb has picked the mind of Brady and knows the “ins” and “outs” of Saraceno.

Saraceno should be much larger than Webb but that won’t make much of a difference when the fight hits the ground. I predict Webb will submit Saraceno late in the first round. Again, this is going to be a big play for us rolling on 5 units!

Spooky Express Free Play: Jonavin Webb -237 for 5 units at Bookmaker

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Saul Almeida vs. Andy Main

The next fight we are looking at is in the featherweight division between Saul Almeida and Andy Main. Almeida enters this fight as the slight favorite at -135 compared to Andy Main being -105. Almeida enters the fight with a 19-9 record and has been struggling to win just 1 of his last 6 fights. Almeida has fought on both Bellator and World Series of Fighting and now looks to make his LFA debut against Andy Main.

Andy Main enters this fight with an 11-3-1 record. Main is a former TUF Season 12 contestant that went 1-1 on the show. One thing that is concerning to me is the fact that Main only has one fight in the last 18 months, and his fight before that came in 2015. That being said, if you know Andy Main, you know that he is a student of the profession and is truly one of the smartest MMA fighters I’ve ever been around.

Main has been training hard for this camp, breaking his training up between his gym Pure Mixed Martial Arts, training with Carnicella BJJ, Tiger Schulmann MMA and training with the likes of Lyman Good, Shane Burgos, Mike Trizano, Julio Arce and Frank Buenafuente. Main takes training seriously and will absolutely be ready for this fight. I am predicting Main wins the fight against a game opponent via 3rd round submission.

Spooky Express Free Play: Andy Main -105 for 3 units at Bookmaker


Stephen Regman vs. Will Santiago

We usually don’t handicap this many fights on a single card but honestly, this card is so appealing to me that I just can’t stop picking fights. In this fight, Stephen Regman will take on Will Santiago. Regman enters the fight with an 8-3 record, while Santiago is 9-5. Before we get deep into this fight, I must mention that Santiago missed weight yet Regman still accepted the fight.

Santiago is fresh off a Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series loss to Kevin Holland. Santiago trains out of Jackson Wink MMA and it actually surprises that he was able to get on DWTNCS with the caliber of competition that he has faced. Santiago has fought some rather weak opposition and has now lost 2 out of his last 4 fights overall.

Stephen Regman is 8-3 and enters this fight off a 3rd rd TKO of Kenny Gaudreau. Regman hasn’t recorded a loss since 2016 when he dropped consecutive fights against UFC veteran Darrell Horcher and Mike Wilkins. Since that point, he has rolled off 3 consecutive wins against competition with a combined record of 17-7.

Regman is a very strong striker and will cause all sorts of issues for Santiago with his movement. Santiago weighed in at 182lbs and didn’t even both taking his shirt off at the weigh-ins. That tells me that he is out of shape for this fight and better hope he can finish Regman in the first few minutes of the fight or Regman is going to make him pay. I don’t see anyway that Regman doesn’t win this fight. Bet Regman at -230 for 3 units at Bookmaker!

Spooky Express Free Play: Stephen Regman -230 for 3 units at Bookmaker

Last thing I want to cover about this event is to wish the best of luck to all of the fighters I know. From Kenny Richmond, to Ben Allen, to Patrick Rivera, to Ahmet Kayretli to a great battle between Adi Alic and John De Jesus….this fight card is absolutely stacked with local talent and for those that have AXS TV, you are in for a real treat!

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LFA 49 Handicapping Tips and Betting Picks

by Sep 14, 2018UFC Betting

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