Well, if this fight isn’t the most uninviting matchup for betting that I have seen since, well, at least last week. This is low-level women’s MMA and I am surprised to see either of them still competing inside the Octagon.
I know that Randa, who is 10-12-1 in her pro MMA career, is a legit fighter and has more or less grown up inside the Octagon. Her record with the promotion is 6-10-1. That, of course, is still pretty crappy but she is still fighting for the UFC, isn’t she?
Randa has been in there with the best and holds wins over fighters like Carla Esparza, Angela Hill, Jessica Penne, and Ashley Yoder who are all still competing under the UFC banner to this day.
Markos is a Canadian but has always had solid wrestling and fundamentals and that has carried her to where she is today. She is 36, though, to her opponent Livinha Souza’s 30 so the age advantage clearly lies with the Brazilian.
The height and reach of the two women are virtually identical. Shoutout to the GOAT, Mike Goldberg. We miss ya. Just kidding. Anik is the man but I feel like he is enjoying the taste of his own kool aid lately but we have all been there.
Let’s look at the betting odds for this women’s flyweight matchup and make a betting prediction for either a winner, round total, or prop bet on a method of victory.
Livinha Souza (-125) vs Randa Markos (+105)
Livinha Souza doesn’t really like to get hit. If you can defend the takedown and crack, she is toast. Randa isn’t a threat like that, though, so we are probably in for a very back and forth close fight that will likely end in a split decision.
I don't want to ignore fights like this because there is better value in other places because how do we get better from week to week? We need to be working on the hardest puzzles. Here is the thing, though, and I will cut you guys to which fights I think you should invest in and which should be a small fun or action bet if you will.
I could give you all kinds of technical this and that and several reasons to take a guess on either combatant but at the end of the day, this is a close fight on paper. The only reason Livinha is a slight favorite is that she is 14-3 against a 10-12 opponent and the two have the 30 to 36-year-old age gap.
Out of Randa's 10 losses inside the Octagon, only the iron hips of Courtney Casey and world-class grappling of Mackenzie Dern have been able to stop her inside the distance. Livinha has been put away once and that was Amanda Lemos who if you don't know is a KILLER…
Souza has decent takedowns and I think that along with the age gap and Randa’s aggressiveness/potential to walk onto takedown attempts will lead to Souza snagging a decision and at (+190), we have some decent value.
Close fight here but we are getting nearly 2 to 1 on the younger girl in a coin flip. As I said, don't go hard but there is value here so a play is imperative.
The fight to go the distance isn't a bad parlay piece either if that's your thing.
Pick: Souza by dec
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