Top 10 Sport Sites

UFC Fight Island 7 Betting Prediction: Sarah Moras vs. Vanessa Melo

by Tyler Vaysman | January 12, 2021 |

Early in the prelims for the upcoming UFC event will feature a great betting opportunity for a women’s bantamweight showdown. For this matchup, you can check out a battle between Sarah Moras and Vanessa Melo. 

Date: Sat, Jan 16, 11:00 AM

Venue: Flash Forum

Watch on: ESPN+

The Fighters 

Sarah Moras (6-7-0)

Moras is stepping into this matchup after a unanimous decision loss to Sijara Eubanks back in May of 2020. That loss broke her attempt at a winning streak with a previous win against Liana Jojua. 

Her fighting resume shows that she has three wins by knockout, two by submission, and one by decision. Out of her two submissions, both of them have been first round finishes. 

“Cheesecake” has a striking accuracy at 38 percent and a grappling accuracy 22 percent. She lands 2.18 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.55. This is a negative ratio and it will be difficult to win if she cannot fix this. 

Moras has a takedown defense at 33 percent and a significant strike defense at 46 percent. She also averages 0.77 takedowns and 0.90 submissions every 15 minutes.  

Vanessa Melo (10-8-0)

Melo is currently on a three fight skid, losing all three bouts by unanimous decision. Her last victory was back in July of 2019, where she defeated Jan Finney via decision. 

Her fighting resume shows that she has two wins by submission and eight by decision. Both of her submission victories have also been first round finishes. 

“Miss Simpatia” has a striking accuracy at 30 percent and nothing yet for grappling accuracy. She lands 3.40 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 7.20. This ratio is a little inflated but still negative and she needs to focus on defending better. 

Melo has a takedown defense at 69 percent and a significant strike defense at 53 percent. She does not yet have averages for takedowns or submissions each fight. 

Odds For This Event 

The market is starting to lean towards Moras in this may matchup. For the moneyline, BetDSI has the odds currently set at: 

Moras: -238

Melo: +193

*odds are subject to changes 

Free Betting Pick 

Both of these fighters have shown to have trouble defending against significant strikes and just defending overall. Melo only has three UFC fights on her resume, so her ratio is a bit inflated in how much damage she has taken on. 

However, at the rate she is absorbing significant strikes, it will not look good again if Moras is able to come out aggressive and out strike her. Not completely sure that will occur though, as both fighters have yet to be the aggressor. 

Moras has had a few fights where she kept up with the competition and even out striked her opponent. In these bouts, she won by submission. 

Overall, you should see a balanced effort from Moras. Whether it goes to decision or ends by submission, Moras is the more appealing pick here. 

Spooky Express Free Pick: Moras wins via submission, at -238

Spooky Express is your UFC Fight Island headquarters for Fight Breakdowns, Betting Analysis, Fight FREE PLAYS, DFS Lineup Tips, Sportsbook Bonuses and much more! CLICK HERE to read each individual handicapping breakdowns from this UFC event!

Share This
GET YOUR $150 BONUS AT US RACING Open your US Racing account to claim your $150  bonus with Promo Code SPOOKY. Click Here to Claim Your Bonus with Promo Code  SPOOKY
New call-to-action