The UFC is back and Fight Island is finally here. The UFC is in Abu Dhabi on fight island and they are starting it off with a bang with a huge card for UFC 251. There are 3 championship fights on tap for this weekend, but the match leading up to them is our focus today.
Rose Namajunas is coming off a KO loss to Andrade in mid 2019 in a title fight. Before that loss, Namajunas was on a roll after beating Joanna Jędrzejczyk twice in championship fights.
Going into the first fight, Namajunas was actually a slight underdog at +125. Now, after losing that fight and not fighting in about a year, Namajunas is a -200 favorite.
This is because Andrade beat Rose via slam, something that almost never happens, especially in a women’s strawweight bout. Rose was pretty clearly the better fighter before losing that first fight and I think that the natural skills of Rose are just a bit more evident and reliable than those of Andrade’s.
Andrade is 20-7 in her professional MMA career, but she is just 28 years old, which I think is something that most fans may find surprising. Even for me, I typically see Rose as the talented younger fighter and Andrade as the veteran. While Andrade is a veteran, she is still clearly young enough to improve her game significantly, something that the line may not be giving her credit for.
For me this fight simply comes down to how you see these two changing since their first fight. Both are 28 years old and still improving as fighters. Both are coming off of career changing losses and both should be hungry to perform at such a big event.
Rose is probably the fighter that the UFC wants to promote moving forward, which is another thing I often look at when analyzing a fight. The UFC makes these fights and chooses them carefully and I think that its pretty clear that Rose is the bigger name here.
The odds suggest that Rose should win and so does the last fight outside of the result. Andrade showed that she is very much a live dog here, but Rose is the favorite for a reason and I think that she is the clear favorite here.
From a betting perspective, I feel comfortable laying the -200 on Rose, but I think that you can pretty easily justify taking shots at Rose +170 by decision or Rose +350 by TKO/KO based on your perspective of the fight. I’d take Rose +170 by decision here.
Spooky Express Free Play – Rose Namajunas -200
Spooky Express is your UFC 251 and Fight Island headquarters for Fight Breakdowns, Betting Analysis, Fight FREE PLAYS, DFS Lineup Tips, Sportsbook Bonuses and much more! CLICK HERE to read each individual handicapping breakdowns from this UFC event!