UFC Fight Night Brasilia Handicapping Tips and Betting Pick

by Ayden Fahlstrom | March 14, 2020 |

UFC Fight Night 170 has a lightweight main event title fight that could steal the show on March 14. This fight will feature Kevin Lee and Charles Oliveira, as the two submission artists will battle it out. Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil will be hosting this UFC event.

Main Event Odds

BetDSI has the odds for Lee and Oliveria currently placed at:

Lee: -149

Oliveria: +124

*these odds are subject to changes

The Fighters

Kevin Lee or “The Motown Phenom” (18-5-0) is a force to be reckoned with, as he is ranked eight in the lightweight division rankings and still climbing. His victories usually come in the form of submission, but if they last to the end then it is a good chance he pulls off a decision win.

Lee has a reach of 77 inches. He is also able to last all the rounds needed to get the job done and works very well on the ground. I look for him to try and end it early with a submission.

Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (28-8-0) is currently ranked thirteenth in the same division as Lee, but do not let his rank fool you because this guy can still do some damage. His five fight win streak is just getting started.

Oliveira has a reach of 74 inches. He also has a massive collection of submission victories with 18. He has a knack for finding a way to win on the ground and making his opponents cave in. I also look for him to try and end this fight early with a submission.

Potential Outcome

Both of these fighters are considerably well versed in their ground game techniques and submission victories. It is no secret that the two of them are probably going to look for a ground game battle since they both do it so well. However, there are a few ways to look at this fight.

Looking at Lee, he has a slight reach advantage in his favor. He has a better takedown average per 15 minutes compared to Oliveira. Oliveira’s submission average on the other hand is much greater than Lee’s per 15 minutes. By the looks of things, if you see Oliveira in control of the fight on the ground he may end up with a submission victory.

Lee could also take the fight at his own pace. With his reach advantage, he can keep his distance and still make impactful significant strikes to earn his points. This could benefit him here, and obviously get him a victory. He is going to be difficult to take down since he has a strong defense of 81 percent for takedowns.

On paper, if you look at the two you can see a lot of information that point towards a victory for Oliveira. He has the better resume for submission wins and has done a lot of them. I am sticking to the stats, and I believe he will be able to pull it out but in a decision fashion.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Charles Oliveira Wins By Decision

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