UFC Fight Night Florida Betting Picks – Miguel Baeza vs. Matt Brown – Saturday, May 16, 2020

by Ayden Fahlstrom | May 15, 2020 |

Miguel Baeza is taking on Matt Brown in a welterweight match in Jacksonville on Saturday night as the last fight on the prelim card for UFC on ESPN 9. This is a clash of two fighters with a very different past.

Miguel Baeza Looks to Stay Undefeated

Miguel Baeza is currently 8-0 and looking to win his second straight UFC fight on Saturday night. While Baeza is undefeated, he is clearly green in the cage is definitely not a top prospect in the welterweight division. Baeza is probably a better athlete than he is a fighter right now, but that has worked for him so far.

Matt Brown Continues to Push Forward

Brown is the opposite of Baeza, with 25 UFC fights under his belt dating all the way back to 2008. That is about as experienced as you can get in the fight game and Brown should look to use this to his advantage. I think that the atmosphere of this fight can have varying effects on each fighter individually, but I think that their own experience and his corner’s experience can help without crowd noise and in a less energetic atmosphere. 

On Wednesday, we saw Anthony Smith get hurt by his corner being so vocal in the first round and a half because he drained his energy. Smith looked like the fresher and more talented fighter early and his corner was constantly calling out moves to Smith. Smith heard each one and did as he was told, but this caused him to gas very badly, very quickly. 

I expect Brown to understand this risk and understand his body more than Baeza in this fight because he has been to war plenty of times. Brown’s experience should be key in this fight.

Baeza’s Path to Victory

I think that Baeza is clearly the better athlete in this fight and that is often a big deal. I think that it is up to Baeza to take advantage of this extra athleticism that he has over Brown. Brown is a journeyman and is not looking to get into a crazy brawl with a young fighter. I look for Brown to take this fight slowly and I think that Baeza needs to pressure the veteran and dictate the pace of the fight.

Baeza has just not done this super effectively recently and it is not something that I can count on. Baeza has great leg kicks and is a great athlete, but he isn’t going to run into Brown like a mad man and force the pace onto Brown.

Free Betting Pick

Matt Brown is a +125 underdog on MyBookie and I think that is a steal. This fight was actaully listed with Brown as a +170 underdog before Brown got hit down to just +125. Either way, I feel way more comfortable with Brown in this fight over a young kid that hasn’t been particularly impressive.

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