UFC Vegas 4 Betting Breakdown and Fight Prediction: Khama Worthy vs. Luis Pena – June 27, 2020

by Tyler Vaysman | June 24, 2020 |

The UFC is back once again with another fight night on ESPN scheduled for Saturday night. Luis Pena and Khama Worthy are the final fight on the prelim card and this fight should be very exciting with two fighters that are willing to brawl.

Pena is 8-2 heading into this fight as a 26 year old fighter who really doesn’t have a bad loss on the record. This is something that I really like to see when evaluating an up and coming fighter. Pena is a legit prospect that has always been competitive throughout his young career.

Pena’s 2 losses both came as a split decision loss where he lost to fighters that were a combined 14-1-1 going into those fights. Pena is not facing killers and is nowhere close to cracking the top 10 anytime soon, but there is reason for people to look for him to continue to improve and eventually become a real threat to the best in the division with his size at 155.

On the other hand, Khama Worthy is 33 years old and will never really make a ton of noise in this division. That being said, he has won 6 straight fights after being a 9-6 fighter without a path to the UFC. 

Worthy has only been involved with 2 fights that go to decision in his last 15 fights all the way back to the beginning of 2014. He also has experience as a major underdog and winning against a younger and more promising fighter.

Both of these fighters want to brawl until the referee stops them. This is one of my favorite fights to bet on because there is almost no doubt about how this fight goes one way or another. It is definitely possible that one or both of these guys are not in the best shape due to current events, but I know how they plan on this fight going. Pena is much more polished on the ground, with a lot of submission victories, but he is still a fighter that probably wants to throw on the feet more than wrestle for 15 minutes. 

Betting Preview

MyBookie has Pena as a -275 favorite over Worthy, who is a +215 underdog. While I get that Pena is the better fighter, I think that this line is a fade as a whole, especially when you start to look at the props available. These props are what I want to target in this fight.

I honestly think that you can bet this fight a bunch of different ways, but I love a lot of the bigger numbers here. Fight won’t start the second round is listed around +200, Worthy in the first is +725, which is probably my favorite value here. I also like Pena inside the distance if you want to back the better fighter at a better price at +130.

Spooky Express Free Pick – Khama Worthy Wins Inside The Distance +130

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