UFC Vegas 4 Betting Breakdown and Fight Prediction: Kyle Nelson vs. Sean Woodson – June 27, 2020

by Tyler Vaysman | June 22, 2020 |

Setting the tone early in the upcoming UFC fight night, will feature two featherweights in the prelims. The fighters taking the stage first will be Sean Woodson and Kyle Nelson. 

Date:Saturday, June 27, 4:00 PM

Venue:UFC APEX

Watch on:ESPN

The Fighters 

Sean Woodson (7-0-0) (1-0-0 in UFC)

Woodson has only one thing on his mind so far, and that is to build a legacy. The newcomer to the UFC has a professional record of 2 wins by knockout, 1 by submission, and 4 by decision. 

“The Sniper” has a striking accuracy of 44 percent but nothing to show for a grappling accuracy. He lands an impressive 7.40 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.33. This is a great ratio if he can keep it going, since he delivers double what he takes in hits. 

He has some solid defenses here with a takedown defense at 86 percent and a significant strike defense at 70 percent. Since most of his wins have been decisions, his average fighting time is at 15 minutes. 

Kyle Nelson (13-3-0)

Nelson has made great strides thus far into his career. His fighting resume shows that he has 5 wins by knockout, 4 by submission, and 4 by decision. 

“The Monster” has a striking accuracy of 36 percent and a grappling accuracy of 17 percent. He lands 2.73 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 6.35. If these averages are true, then his ratio is in danger of him getting hit quite more often than he delivers. 

Nelson has a takedown defense at 50 percent and a significant strike defense at 48 percent. He also averages 1.41 takedowns and 2.82 submissions every 15 minutes. 

Odds For This Event 

The market has this fight scattered around in places. BookMaker has the odds currently sitting at:

Woodson:-230

Nelson:+179

*odds are subject to changes 

Potential Winning Pick 

Both of these fighters are making positive moves to getting to the top. But are the odds justified for his matchup?

Nelson has had success in his fight so far. But, how long can he take significant strikes like that before turning on him? He has shown to have a decent ground game but lacks a good grappling accuracy. 

I like Woodson for this one due to his significant strike ratio and his higher defenses. He also has a great reach advantage of 78 inches compared to 71 inches on Nelson. 

Spooky Express Free Pick: Woodson wins via tko 

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