The Ultimate Fighter Season 28 Finale Handicapping Tips and Betting Picks

by | Nov 29, 2018 | UFC Betting

Ultimate Fighter Season 28 Finale

Where/Venue: The Pearl at the Palms

Where/Location: Las Vegas, Nevada

When: Friday, Nov. 30, 2018

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The UFC has not 1 but 2 events on the schedule for this week, kicking it off on Friday Night, November 30, 2018, with The Ultimate Fighter Season 28 Finale.  

This event will take place from The Pearl at the Palms in Las Vegas, Nevada and will get started on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 PM ET. 

There are 3 fights scheduled as the Early Prelims on UFC Fight Pass and the remainder of the Prelims and Main Card being held on FS1.  

The Main Event for TUF 28 Finale is in the Welterweight Division between former UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos and current UFC Welterweight Title Contender Kamaru Usman.  

The Co-Main Event will feature the #9 Bantamweight Pedro Munhoz taking on the #14 Bantamweight Bryan Caraway.  

Both of those fights should be very interesting and exciting, with potential title ramifications down the line resulting from both the Main Event and the Co-Main Event.  Now, without any further delay, let’s take a look at some betting picks from this card.

 

The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale Fight Card

The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale – 11/30/2018
Fighter A Record Odds   Fighter B Record Odds
Rafael dos Anjos 28-10 225 vs. Kamaru Usman 13-1 -245
Justin Frazier 10-2 138 vs. Juan Espino 8-1 -149
Macy Chiasson 2-0 -106 vs. Pannie Kianzad 10-3 -116
Pedro Munhoz 16-3 -207 vs. Bryan Caraway 21-8 200
Edmen Shahbazyan 7-0 -115 vs. Darren Stewart 9-3 105
Antonina Shevchenko 6-0 -290 vs. Ji Yeon Kim 8-1 265
Rick Glenn 21-5 100 vs. Kevin Aguilar 15-1 -110
Joseph Benavidez 25-5 115 vs. Alex Perez 21-4 -125
Maurice Greene 5-2 -176 vs. Michel Batista 4-0 154
Leah Letson 4-1 -231 vs. Julija Stoliarenko 4-2 189
Roosevelt Roberts 6-0 -303 vs. Darrell Horcher 13-3 275
Tim Means 27-10 -361 vs. Ricky Rainey 13-5 319
Raoni Barcelos 12-1 -455 vs. Chris Gutierrez 12-2 413
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The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale Handicapping

The feature fight of The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale is in the UFC Lightweight Division between Roosevelt Roberts and Darrell Horcher.  This fight is slated to take place on the Early Prelims on UFC Fight Pass. The fight is scheduled for three 5-minute rounds in the Lightweight Division.

Roosevelt Roberts is currently the heavy favorite in this fight with a -303 line and is fresh off a Dana White Tuesday Night’s Contender Series victory over Garrett Gross.  That took place back on July 31, 2018 and with that win, Roberts is 6-0 with all 6 wins coming by way of finish, 3 KO and 3 Submission.

Standing across the octagon from Roberts is Darrell Horcher.  Horcher is 13-3 and has gone 1-2 in the UFC. Many of you will recall that Horcher made his UFC debut on 1-week’s notice against Khabib Nurmagomedov and then missed 14-months after suffering major injuries in a motorcycle accident.  Horcher returned and got the win over Devin Powell at UFC Fight Night 112. His only other loss came in his last fight, which was nearly a year ago against Scott Holtzman via decision.

Horcher is back training with Daniel Gracie and I think the world of Daniel Gracie!  Training fighters is the life of Gracie and he is good at what he does. Having Gracie in Horcher’s corner will be a tremendous asset and should work well with Horcher as they are both very mellow and carry a calm demeanor.    

Roberts has gained a lot of attention and enters with the perfect 6-0 record and is a heavy favorite, so he should win this fight, correct….WRONG!  Listen, no one is realizing that Darrell Horcher has some of the hardest striking in the lightweight division. Ask anyone that has been inside the cage with Horcher and they will tell you that the kid hits like a tank and his wrestling is respectable enough to fend off the takedown attempts of Roberts.  

Horcher is going to not only win this fight but I predict he KO’s Roberts in the 1st round!  That leads me to play Horcher with two plays. First, I’m betting Horcher +275 for 3 units.  Horcher is so underrated in this fight that it makes me ill to my stomach. Horcher is Top 15 talent in the UFC and the bottom line, when he hits you, you go down!  

Second, I really like the prop here for Horcher Wins via KO/TKO for +870.  Horcher hasn’t shown his power in the UFC but he has had excuses. Let’s face it, knocking out Khabib after recovering from a broken arm isn’t easy, and the second fight he wanted to play it safe and get the win, and the third fight, he just tired.  That won’t be an issue here, Horcher wins by KO and I will lay 2 units on the play at +870.

Free Play: Darrell Horcher +275 for 3 units

Free Play: Darrell Horcher Wins by KO/TKO +870 for 2 units

 

Additional The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale Plays

Juan Espino -149 for 2 units – Espino will be facing Justin Frazier who has beat no one of credibility.  Comparing the two fighters, we find Espino’s resume is miles ahead of Frazier.  Espino should have little trouble submitting Frazier late in the 2nd round.

Michel Batista +154 for 2 units – Maurice Greene really hasn’t taken the sport seriously and now goes up against a Cuban Olympic Wrestler.  While Greene is smoking cigarettes and drinking cases of beer a night, (No joking, if you watched the show, you know what I’m referring to), Batista is simply the better athlete and should win this one impressively.  

Chris Gutierrez +413 for 1 unit – Gutierrez will be facing Raoni Barcelos.  The odds on this fight are completely wrong.  Yes, while I agree Barcelos should be a favorite, he shouldn’t be a -455 favorite!  Gutierrez has a shot here and I will lay 1 unit on him.

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