What a week last week was at RBC Heritage! The Spooky Express PGA plays went into Sunday with a chance of cashing BIG money! Webb Simpson was 80-1 and went into Sunday in 3rd place, by 2 strokes! If you read the article last week, you will remember me saying that Webb Simpson has a tendency of jumping in out of nowhere and winning a tournament, or at least contending! Well, I think it is safe to say, he did it again! He ended up in 11th place but was there until the end of the tournament.
Wesley Bryan earned his first PGA tour victory, defeating Luke Donald by 1 stroke to get the win in his home state of South Carolina. This week, we travel from the east coast out west to San Antonio, Texas for the Valero Texas Open. Once again, this week, we will give you 5 golfers that we will be playing and 1 play on head to heads.
This week, for our Spooky Express email newsletter readers, we will have a Newsletter ONLY play that we will give out ONLY on the newsletter. Make sure you check the newsletter on Wednesday so you can get our bonus play! If you aren’t already signed up for a daily newsletter of articles, free plays and betting advice, sign up HERE.
Last week, we didn’t give out any head to heads simply because nothing really stuck out to us and no sense giving out plays that we don’t feel safe and secure with!
Valero Texas Open Overview
The Valero Texas Open is in its 95th year in operation and is played at TPC San Antonio’s AT&T Oaks Course. TPC San Antonio’s AT&T Oaks Course was designed by Greg Norman, with the assistance of consultant Sergio Garcia, and has been the host site for the Valero Texas Open since 2010. The winner of this tournament will take home $1,116,000.
TPC San Antonio is a Par 72, 7,435-yard golf course. This course is always rated as one of the toughest courses the pros will see on tour. The cut this week will take place after the first 36 holes, with the top 70 golfers plus ties making it through the cut.
The fairways are tree lined and narrow but for the most part, the course is clear with very few obstacles and barely any water. There are some very deep bunkers located throughout the course and some are as deep as 12 feet deep!
This week, we will use several key components in our system to get the best golfers in this tournament. The first and most important key attribute is Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.
This course is very narrow and tight so we think the SG: Tee To Green will be most important. We will also use Strokes Gained: Putting. Once you are on the greens, they can be fast so putting will be of importance as well. In addition, the past 5 winners of this tournament were mainly ball smashers with decent putting game.
To do well at this tournament, you are going to have to do well with Par 5’s so we are putting Par 5 Scoring, as well as Par 5 Birdie or Better, as two additional components. We will round it out with Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling.
Now, let’s jump on in and find some winners for this week’s Valero Texas Open!
*My first golfer is Adam Hadwin at 28/1. I know, I know….we have gone back to the well with him in the past 2 weeks and this is our third time jumping on Hadwin but I truly believe he is the hands down best golfer in this tournament for the course, form and attributes. Out of all of the golfers in this tournament, Hadwin is the ONLY golfer that ranks in the top 50 in all 5 attributes. Hadwin is 3rd on tour in Scrambling, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, 18th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 23rd in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 49th in Par 5 Birdie or Better. Hadwin has made the cut in every tournament he appeared in and has a win and a second place under his belt already this year. I absolutely LOVE Hadwin this week!
*My second golfer is Brendan Steele at 22/1. Steele placed 27th at the Masters in his last tournament and took a week off last week. He now returns to a course where he has made 5 out of 6 cuts, including a win in 2011, 4th place in 2012, 8th in 2015 and 13th in 2016.
*My third golfer is Matt Kuchar at 22/1. Kuch has made the cut here at TPC San Antonio 5 straight tournaments in a row. He has a 4th place finish here in 2014, which is the highest at this course over his career. He also has a 13th, 15th and 22nd place finish dating back to 2012. Kuchar is coming into this tournament off an 11th place finish at RBC Heritage and a 4th place finish at The Masters. Kuchar is one of the favorites but even at 18/1, I still find him as a good value.
*My fourth golfer is Ryan Palmer at 33/1. Palmer has played at TPC San Antonio 7 years straight and made the cut 6 out of 7 years. He has a 4th, 6th, 9th, and a 15th place finish in that time frame. Palmer is coming off an 11th place finish at RBC Heritage and is playing better golf now than he did in the beginning of the year.
*My fifth golfer is Luke List at 50/1. Remember earlier I said Adam Hadwin was the only golfer that hit Top 50 in all 5 attributes, well List missed hitting all 5 by 2 points. List is 6th Par 5 Birdie or Better, 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, 19th in Bogey Avoidance and 46th in Scrambling. List missed the cut last week but prior to last week, he had made the cut in 5 straight including a 3rd place finish at the Shell Houston Open, which just so happens to be another sandy Texas course. If he can get his putter going, he could get out to an early lead and be tough to catch!
Head To Head Plays
Matt Kuchar over Brooks Koepka -125 2 Units